課程資訊
課程名稱
計量經濟理論三
ECONOMETRIC THEORY (III) 
開課學期
98-1 
授課對象
社會科學院  經濟學研究所  
授課教師
林金龍 
課號
ECON8905 
課程識別碼
323 M6160 
班次
 
學分
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
必修 
上課時間
星期一6,7,8(13:20~16:20) 
上課地點
經大講堂 
備註
總人數上限:60人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/981EconometricsIII 
課程簡介影片
 
核心能力關聯
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖
課程大綱
為確保您我的權利,請尊重智慧財產權及不得非法影印
課程概述

The objectives of this course are twofold: to equip the students with proper
tools for advanced empirical work and to lay the foundation of advanced econometric theory. To meet the goals, I give the lectures in five parts. The first part includes the introduction of stochastic process and a summary review of testing causality within cointegrated system assuming that students have already been exposed to the topics on unit root and cointegration analysis in Econometric I and II. Then comes the second part concerning asymptotic econometric theorems.

The next three parts cover three promising topics useful for economic empirical research, namely State Space model, survival analysis and hierarchial. Estimating potential output and output gap is an important application of State Space model and Kalman filter. As for survival analysis, I focus on the application on credit risk modeling. Lastly, I shall cover hierarchial models from the Bayesian perspectives. For many economics students, this might be the first encounter of Bayesian econometrics and hierarchial models. Yet, I hope to convince you the worthiness
of learning the new tricks.

In additional to econometric analysis, I also emphasize computational aspects
of these complicated econometric techniques. R, is the statistical packages used in this course.
 

課程目標
The objectives of this course are twofold: to equip the students with proper
tools for advanced empirical work and to lay the foundation of advanced econometric theory. 
課程要求
homework and class attendance (30%), midterm (30%), term paper (40%),
 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
另約時間 備註: 20 minutes before the lecturing on Monday or by appointment 
指定閱讀
 
參考書目
Halbert White, Asymptotic Theory for Econometricians, Academic Press, 1984.
Ruey S. Tsay, Analysis of Financial Time Series, 2nd , JohnWiley & Sons, 2005
Peter E. Rossi, Greg Allenby, and Rob McCulloch, Bayesian Statistics and
Marketing, John Wiley and Sons, 2005
Andrew C. Harvey and Tommaso Proietti eds, Readings in Unobserved
Component Models, 2005, Oxford university Press.
James Durbin and S.J Koopman, Time Series Analysis by State Space
Methods, Oxford University Press, 2001.
A. Colin Cameron and Pravin K. Trivedi Microeconometrics: Methods
and Applications, Cambridge University Press, 2005. 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
 
No.
項目
百分比
說明
1. 
homework and class attendance 
30% 
 
2. 
midterm 
30% 
 
3. 
term paper 
40% 
 
 
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題
第1週
9/14  Introduction to econometrics and R

 
第2週
9/21  Review of stochastic process, functional central limit theorem, stochastic integration 
第3週
9/28  Asymptotic econometric theory (I) 
第4週
10/05  Asymptotic econometric theory (II) 
第5週
10/12  Asymptotic econometric theory (III) 
第6週
10/19  Cointegration and causality testing 
第7週
10/26  State Space Model, Kalman Filter and Estimating output gap (I) 
第8週
11/02  State Space Model, Kalman Filter and Estimating output gap (II) 
第9週
11/09  Midterm exam. 
第10週
11/16  State Space Model, Kalman Filter and Estimating output gap (III) 
第11週
11/23  Survival analysis and credit risk models (I) 
第12週
11/30  Survival analysis and credit risk models (II) 
第13週
12/07  Survival analysis and credit risk models (III)
 
第14週
12/14  Bayesian analysis of hierarchial models (I) 
第15週
12/21  Bayesian analysis of hierarchial models (II) 
第16週
12/28  Bayesian analysis of hierarchial models (III)
 
第17週
1/04  Bayesian analysis of hierarchial models (IV)